In Kinshasa, the general staff is in turmoil. In the absence of the generals retained by the Head of State for security meetings, the traditional weekend parade has been transformed in some garrisons into prayer sessions.
“The war is lost”
At the front, it is a rout. In the early morning of January 24, while he had gone to galvanize the men deployed at the front, Major General Cirimwami was shot down. He died courageously at the front. He leaves with honors. His death has created astonishment. It is a terrible blow to the morale of the Congolese troops who are having a very difficult time cohabiting with the Wazalendo, the terrible FDLR and a handful of mercenaries recruited at high prices.
To stem the rout, the authorities in Kinshasa cut the internet signal. Goma has become a funnel where nearly 30,000 men have retreated. The war is lost. A tragedy that intensifies every day.
After me the flood
At a time when North Kivu is falling like a house of cards, Félix Tshisekedi is displaying a worrying lack of awareness. Sources from the presidency reveal that from Davos, Switzerland, where he stayed for a few hours, the Congolese Head of State called Denis Kadima, the president of the CENI, to ask him to urgently prepare the budget for the holding of a constitutional referendum next June. Ignoring the security emergencies, Tshisekedi continues against all odds to prioritize his personal ambitions to the detriment of national unity.
“At the CENI, there is a general commotion to respond to the request of the Head of State ,” assures a member of the office of the institution’s rapporteur. However, the atmosphere is far from being good in the house. Salary arrears have accumulated and staff are absent more often than in the offices. Whether Goma falls or Bukavu, it matters little to Félix Tshisekedi who is determined to implement his project. Having received the support of the former tenants of the government building, notably that of Léon Kengo wa Dongo, the Head of State has decided to work twice as hard to change the Constitution.
In Western capitals, especially at the State Department in Washington and Brussels, Félix Tshisekedi’s stubbornness is causing great concern. “The Congolese president and his entourage seem to be living in isolation at the moment ,” says a member of the former Africa Desk in the American capital. The specter of a civil war, similar to the one ravaging Sudan, hangs over the DRC. The country could split into two republics: one led by Tshisekedi and his family, the other by Corneille Nangaa, who is gaining ground in North and South Kivu, with the possibility of an advance towards the Orientale Province, the stronghold of the former president of the CENI.
Goma, Bukavu, Bunia, an inevitable game of dominoes?
While Tshisekedi clings like a shipwrecked man to his buoy to the change of the Fundamental Law, the AFC/M23 is biding its time. Three Congolese cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants – Goma, Bukavu and Bunia – could soon fall under its control. Many political leaders, forced to flee the dictatorship imposed by the Congolese regime, could join this new administration. The war, fueled with the support of Rwanda, would then turn into a Congolese civil war, fueled by fierce resistance to the constitutional coup d’état of the Head of State. Calls for dialogue by the Catholic and Protestant Churches seem to find no echo in either camp. And the mediation process initiated in Luanda by President Lourenço is well and truly at a standstill.
Purists of Congolese law point out that the state of emergency declared in Ituri and North Kivu makes any change to the Constitution impossible. In the midst of a military rout, it would be surprising if Congolese parliamentarians agreed to lift this state of emergency to allow Tshisekedi to pursue his deadly project for the future of Congo. However, the Head of State and his family seem determined to impose their will to establish unshared power over the country.
The coming days are set to be crucial for the DRC, which is sinking deeper into tragedy every day. Meanwhile, Denis Kadima is secretly preparing a budget that could well be the last of his term as head of the CENI.
CREDIT: Le Congo Quonaime